Oil price moves need a market-mechanics frame

Bob Ryan helped develop the original WTI options at the New York Mercantile Exchange, spent 13 years as BCA's Chief Commodity Strategist, and was an economist at the EIA. He says crude bottomed around $70 on Brent and is heading back to $80 by August as the flush supply from the Strait of Hormuz gets absorbed. The 115 tankers that were trapped are mostly out, but the real question is whether anybody sends an empty one back in. Iran hit a ship using the UN maritime corridor and everything froze. Their mosaic strategy is built on outlasting the US without forcing boots on the ground. US missile inventory is down 40 to 50%. Salt dome storage is at 1983 levels and physically degrading. Ukraine is bombing Russian refineries and Moscow may ban distillate exports. China keeps building new storage. The demand to rebuild inventory is global, and it does not go away this year. 📊 tastylive: https://www.tastylive.com/ 📰 Get Tom's pre-market analysis every morning: https://www.tastylive.com/newsletters 📘 FREE Options Strategy Guide: https://tinyurl.com/bp9ms763 📱 Follow tastylive on X: https://x.com/tastyliveshow Chapters 00:00 Crude oil erased the war premium. What changed 01:36 115 tankers out of the Gulf, super abundance hitting 03:25 Brent bottoms around $70, classic storage economics 04:14 Will anyone send an empty tanker back in? 04:53 Iran hit a ship on the UN corridor. Everything froze 06:05 Iran's mosaic strategy: Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq lessons 07:57 The US burned through half its best missiles 09:08 Trump, gasoline prices, and the midterm problem 10:31 Full kinetic war means $5 gas and depleted inventory 11:05 Flush supply absorbed by mid-July, then what 12:36 Bob's forecast: $70 bottom, $80 by August 14:18 Ukraine bombing Russian refineries, distillate ban coming 17:21 US salt dome storage at 1983 levels, caverns collapsing 19:55 China building new storage, EV fleet not enough 21:38 Recession the only thing that breaks the $80 floor #tastylive #crudeoil #brentcrude #oilmarket #straitofhormuz #iran #energytrading #commodities #oilforecast #tradingtrends tastylive is a real financial network, producing hours of live programming every day. Follow along as our experts navigate the markets, provide actionable trading insights, and teach you how to trade. With over 120 original segments, and over 25 personalities, we'll help you take your trading to the next level, whether you are new to trading or a seasoned veteran. tastylive content is created, produced, and provided solely by tastylive, Inc. ("tastylive") and is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not, nor is it intended to be, trading or investment advice or a recommendation that any security, futures contract, digital asset, other product, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any person. Trading securities, futures products, and digital assets involve risk and may result in a loss greater than the original amount invested. Investment information provided may not be appropriate for all investors and is provided without respect to individual investor financial sophistication, financial situation, investing time horizon or risk tolerance. Options, futures, and futures options are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading securities, options, futures, or futures options, please read all applicable risk disclosures, including, but not limited to, the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options Disclosure and the Futures and Exchange Traded Options Risk Disclosure Statement found at https://tastytrade.com/disclosures/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance is not presented net of all commissions, fees, and expenses. Multi-leg option strategies incur higher transaction costs than single leg trades as they involve multiple commission charges. Examples provided are for illustrative, informational, and educational purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Supporting documentation for any claims, including claims made on behalf of options programs), comparisons, statistics, or other technical data, if applicable, will be supplied upon request. tastylive, through its content, financial programming or otherwise, does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. tastylive is not a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, or a registered broker-dealer.